Celtics v. Blazers Preview Extravaganza

First, check out this, it's super hilarious and well written.  Now, on to the good stuff... 

We're less than four hours away from the Blazers and Celtics tipping off in Boston (catch it on ESPN if you don't want to listen to Mike Rice gush over Channing Frye and you love Van Gundy/Jackson as much as I do), so I figured I'd provide a few nuggets of wisdom about what might be the keys to the game for both sides.  Now before you all collectively groan in disgust, let me reassure you that what follows may actually prove insightful, unlike most other "key to tonight's match-up" pieces that simply say score, defend and rebound better than your opponent.  There are a few things that I'm looking for as indicators of successful play by both sides which go much deeper than the usual mundane crap, so bear with me.

For the Blazers to be successful tonight against the defending champion Celtics (I never get tired of saying that), the most important thing they can do is try and run their sets and still find quality looks within their halfcourt sets.  The Celtics defend hard on every single possession, so the Blazers will have to work very hard to move the ball and create open looks for their shooters on the perimeter.  Their offensive execution will be paramount tonight, and the Celtics' defense will really test the decision making ability of the young Blazers.  Knowing when to fire away, when to swing the ball and where quality looks will come from will really help the Blazers against one of the Association's top defenses.

Sticking with the Blazers' offensive execution tonight, I don't think that they should rely heavily on running pick & roll sets with Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge or their other bigs, seeing as how pick & roll defense is something that Kendrick Perkins, Glen Davis and Kevin Garnett especially excel at as much as anyone else in the league.  Garnett's length and physical play will bother both Aldridge and Roy if they run a lot of these sets, so it's probably better to run more isolation plays for Roy (he's especially good at these) and force the Celtics to defend him one on one. 

On defense, the Blazers can't get too caught up with Pierce, Allen and Garnett (though ignoring them will certainly kill you) and should make it a point of emphasis to keep Rajon Rondo out of the paint.  It's easier said than done, I know, but keeping Rondo in check is a proven way to disrupt the Celtics' offense and stagnate Boston's ball movement.  If the Blazer defense isn't forced to collapse on Rondo or help out on him down low, then the Celtics won't get as many open looks for the perimeter jumpers that are the bread and butter of their offense.  Rondo's been on a tear of late, culminating with Wednesday's gargantuan triple double (16/17/13) against the Pacers, and when he's playing well and creating opportunities for the rest of the Celtics they are impossible to stop.

The other huge key for the Blazers that could give them an edge is controlling the glass on defense.  As I mentioned, the Celtics are a jumpshooting team, so limiting them to one shot attempt per possession could really help the Blazers stay with Boston down the stretch.  Fortunately for Portland, they are currently one of the best rebounding teams in the league (not hard with Oden and Przybilla underneath), so they should be able to control the boards on defense.  Also, controlling the boards will really limit the play of Leon Powe and Big Baby Davis, who get most of their points and high percentage looks off of second shot attempts.  If the Blazers can use their incredible size and depth to limit those two, then I fear that the Celtics' second unit may be in for a long, long night.

On the other side, I really think that it's important for the Celtics to try as much as they can to limit Brandon Roy and to defend the hell out of the three-point line.  The Blazers can really shoot the ball from distance, and if the Celtics can pressure Portland's shooters and prevent them from establishing a rhythm, they should come out ahead tonight.  In particular, Boston needs to pay special attention to Steve Blake and Rudy Fernandez.  Both of those guys are snipers and when they play well the Blazers are tough to beat.  I'd say the same thing for Travis Outlaw, who has vastly improved the range on his jumper this season, but his offense seems so one dimensional that I think he'll be more easily contained than Blake or Rudy.  Seriously, the guy has one move in his repetoire and couldn't dribble drive to the basket to save his life.  Outlaw either spots up with a foot on the three-point line or takes two dribbles and pulls up for an 18-footer, end of story.  If the Celtics just play him close, keep a hand in his face and don't lose him onbasket cuts when he doesn't have the ball they can completely neutralize him.

As for Roy, the Celtics will have to do their best to contain him, though that's a tall order to be sure.  Roy is a great one on one player with a scorer's mentality that reminds me more and more each day of Paul Pierce.  Roy will rock you to sleep with the dribble and use his sneaky quickness to get to his spot on the floor.  He can hit the mid-range jumper with the best of them and is always probing for weaknesses in the opponent's defense that he can exploit.  Roy is also very adept at getting into the paint and abusing his defender with an arsenal of moves, and he must have one of the strongest off-hands in the entire league.  I'd put Roy's left handed play right up there with Ginobili, Nowitzki, Nash, LeBron, and anyone else.  Every time I watch the Blazers, I see Roy finish tough looks with the left while defenses fail to adapt.  The Celtics need to be aware that forcing Roy left won't cut it, and they'll have to use their full range of defensive firepower to contain him.  

On offense for the Celtics, the most important thing for them will be to take care of the basketball.  Turnovers have been Boston's achillies heel thus far and are the only thing that keeps opponents close to the Celtics.  Also, it would be nice if Kevin Garnett made a concerted effort to get into the paint and use his physical tools to exploit the Blazer defense.  Aldridge and Frye are too soft to handle Garnett down low, Outlaw is too small, and Oden and Przybilla are too slow to stay with KG.  He could feast on Portland's big men, but something tells me we'll see more fade-aways and pull up jumpers than anything else.  

I really do like the match-up of Kevin Garnett against the Blazers' power forwards both on offense and defense.  Aldridge and Frye are routinely reluctant to go down low with the ball, and against the length and physicality of Garnett they could really struggle to find a rhythm tonight.  If Garnett can impose his will on defense, that should fuel his offense on the other end and keep the Blazers' bigs on their heels against him.  Portland will have to do something to counter Garnett's presence, but I'm not sure what they can do.  It doesn't make sense to double team him, because Garnett is a phenominal passer and the Celtics are loaded with other weapons, but I'm not sure that the Blazers have a one on one match-up that can give Garnett trouble on either end of the floor.

Both teams play a hard-nosed, physical brand of basketball that focuses on defense first, so this contest may very well be a low scoring affair. Since both teams do play similar styles of ball, I think tonight's game will be won with execution rather than forcing the opponent to play a brand of basketball that they're uncomfortable with.  If the Blazers can capitalize on their size and do their best to get good shots on offense, then they could continue on their hot streak and topple yet another giant in this young basketball season.  On the other hand, if Rajon Rondo comes out firing and Boston can pressure the Blazers into contested shots and force them to play against the shot clock as well as their defense, then Boston should come out ahead tonight.This game should be great, I'm already psyched and we're still hours away from tip off.  I'll probably have a postgame reaction ready by tomorrow at some point, so you'll have a full day to take in the nuances of this piece and craft pointed retorts to highlight my ineptitude after everything I've written about goes completely out the window.