Before you say anything, I know, I know, I know, but this side gig (as enriching as it is) doesn’t exactly pay the bills (or the bar tab, whatever the case may be) at all, so I’ve been putting most of my energy into my alter ego. Dave the outdoor enthusiast and salesman, which hasn’t exactly left me with enough time to really share any of my sports related nuggets of wisdom with y’all. BY the way, at this time I’d like to just put it out there that I am submitting applications for an unpaid internship position as my research assistant (quick, find me Ryan Howard’s OPS!) and stenographer (translation: follow me to the bar with a tape recorder to find out what I really think about Derek Jeter). Send in a résumé and a cover letter, and I’ll let you know.
Now for something revolutionary, here it goes: I wish Ray were here this week to give me his “expert” opinion as an economist (I know the answer: “it depends”) about the recent and very real challenge to the NBA’s Collective Bargaining Agreement posed by Atlanta Hawks Forward Josh Childress, who earlier this week agreed to a lucrative contract offer from the Greek team Olympiakos.
Here’s the quick & dirty explanation of the situation, forgive me in advance for any technical terms or confusing jargon, as well as the coming paragraphs which no doubt contain (we’ll soon see about that!) a boring but hopefully brief and simple discussion of the nuts and bolts of the situation.
Basically, Josh Childress (a #6 overall pick out of Stanford) became what the NBA calls a “restricted free agent” at the end of this past season, which meant that any team could sign him to an offer sheet, and as long as the Atlanta Hawks didn’t match that offer (that’s the restricted part), he’d go to the new team that signed him. If Atlanta were to have matched his offer sheet, then Childress would have to stay with Atlanta for that price.
What’s the effect of this aspect of the NBA’s free agency system? Other teams are more reluctant to sign restricted free agents because it ties up their money for up to a week with no guarantee that the investment will bear fruit. With opposing clubs discouraged from bidding for a player’s services, the team owning that player (in this case the Hawks who own the rights to Childress) can lowball the athlete and force a less valuable contract agreement.
But wait, this horrible paradox of American capitalism gets even better. The NBA’s free agency system also limits how much any team can offer a player like Josh Childress, driving down the player’s value even further, and although these deals are still worth many millions of dollars, you must remember that these players are not only elite athletes that represent the absolute best of the world at what they do, they are also the primary money makers for the teams and the league, which is worth billions of dollars as a whole.
Basically, despite being an American industry (that’s supposed to resemble free market capitalism), the NBA has limited the bargaining power of the players, obtained monopoly status here in the United States and limited the number of potential buyers of this product, which happens to be in this case freakishly athletic and skilled young men that can put a ball in a hoop with great success.
While this CBA seems to be tighter than the metaphorical vice Nurse Ratched had on McMurphy’s balls in One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, there is, as Josh Childress just proved, one gigantic freaking loophole that also fittingly represents one bitch of a trait of free market capitalism.
The NBA’s CBA only prevents other NBA teams from making bids on players, and with the rising value of the Euro and the elite level of competition in Europe, players like Josh Childress and high school sensation Brandon Jennings (as well as a host of other NBA players) are choosing the gyms of Italy, Spain, Russia, Turkey, and Greece over the NBA. Admittedly, Brandon Jennings’ situation is different than that of Childress, but he has been integral to this process by becoming the first high school player to circumvent the cooperative web between the NBA and the NCAA that unjustly forces high school players to wait one year before declaring for the NBA Draft after finishing school.
That’s right, free trade and globalization have actually stung an American business pretty badly, and incredibly, in this case the bosses (the owners) are more at risk than the employees (the players). While I don’t believe that this move is the beginning of the end of the NBA, I do think that this new trend will change the way the game is played and how business gets done in the Association. I also don’t think that this is a severe challenge to the NBA’s dominance of professional basketball, if the league handles this situation with the same stubbornness and sluggish pace that it normally employs to address pressing problems, the NBA could be in real trouble.
Confused yet as to how I can flip flop so dramatically in the same sentence (if you are you obviously haven’t read too many sports pages lately), allow me the space to fully explain the situation (we’re almost there, I swear). Put simply, this problem won’t be a big one until the NBA loses a superstar name in their prime to a European offer. My guess is that won’t happen because NBA superstars do make far more money than any European club can offer them, as well as the star status and notoriety that comes with being one of the biggest names in the biggest league on the planet. Were Kobe to play in Italy when his contract is up, David Stern would absolutely shit his pants out of pure terror, however until that happens, the Commish is likely to sit on his hands and do nothing.
So the league will keep its top breadwinners and most recognizable faces, however there is a looming dark side that could spell the death of the league, at least for the dedicated NBA fan that enjoys watching basketball at a high level with talented rosters through and through. If Josh Childress represents the tip of the iceberg, then this off-season could be the start of a significant trend that would rob the NBA of some of its best young talents. And while these talents aren’t the superstars of the NBA, they do play a tremendous and irreplaceable role in the NBA.
Without quality young players like Josh Childress to fill out rosters and play key roles for NBA teams, the talent pool of the NBA will be shallower than it currently is (and believe me, we’re standing in a kiddy pool right now). Imagine if there are no more sixth men, no more hard working mid level players to team alongside Kobe, LeBron, KG, Paul Pierce, Dirk etc., the NBA will become even more unpalatable than it is now.
Not only would the NBA be at risk for losing much of its supporting talent, the European leagues could begin to steal the NBA’s future stars with reckless abandon. If a player like Brandon Jennings is successful in Europe, he could lead an entire generation of basketball players to choose Europe over the NBA. If that happens (Jay Bilas and Chad Ford will both be sobbing like a baby into their pillows at night), where will David Stern and the NBA owners turn when they don’t have enough young talent to replenish rosters and become the next generation of NBA superstars?
Now think about what would happen if Josh Childress succeeds in Greece. Budding NBA stars could be drawn away in the same fashion that he was, and then the NBA would be in serious trouble. Imagine if Kevin Martin, Brandon Roy, Tyson Chandler, Rajon Rondo (gasp!!!!!), or even somebody as marquee as Carmelo Anthony (a player who is unhappy in the NBA and is tailor made for international basketball) jumps ship, what are we to do as basketball fans then (order more cable channels and stay up all night watching Greek league basketball)?
You can’t fault the players making these decisions to leave, even if an integral piece like Josh Childress walks out the door for greener pastures in Italy, Spain, Russia etc., the responsibility for this horrible mess of a situation must lie solely with the league and its administrators. The players are simply doing all that they can to maximize their own value and find the best situation for themselves, it is the owners and the Association’s front office types that have crapped the bed (wonderful analogy, really) on this one in their continuous effort to monopolize the power structure of NBA free agent negotiations.
Is the NBA doomed because of this? I certainly hope not, but if the league lets things go too far before making the effort to fix this problem, things could get ugly for the NBA very quickly. In a perfect world, Stern and the owners would address this problem immediately, change the rules of free agency to entice players to stay in the NBA and put more effort into making the teams of the NBA run as efficiently and smoothly as possible.
That likely won’t happen, knowing the way that business gets done in the NBA, Stern will wait until Kobe is playing Carmelo Anthony in Italy in 2010 before he even considers changing the rules. At that point, the league will be reduced to LeBron James playing one on one against Paul Pierce in an empty gym.
Come to think of it, that wouldn’t be so bad. Not only would I not have to watch horrid players take valuable possessions away from the stars, Craig Sager and his tacky suits would be out of a job! Now that I think about it that way, I’m actually excited to see NBA players transitioning to the European game. At the very least it will teach the NBA a cruel lesson in economics, and if there is any sense of decency and order in the universe (spoiler alert: there isn't) this situation will be resolved quickly and relatively painlessly and will only serve as the impetus for drastic changes to improve the way that the NBA is operated.
Call me a dreamer, but I'll be keeping hope alive. Only two weeks until Olympic basketball officially starts, get psyched!!!!
