Pritchard, who must have come out of the womb wheeling and dealing, has made ten draft day trades in the last two years that have netted him some of basketball's finest young prospects (Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge) while simultaneously cutting out some of the worst clubhouse cancers in this league (Zach Randolph). In just a few short seasons, Pritchard has taken the Blazers from an irrelevant team toiling in obscurity to a semi-intriguing, slightly less obscure team full of young talent and good character.
The results have been positively amazing, though the Blazers have recently inherited the league's longest playoff drought (thanks a lot, Atlanta!). Fans are excited to go see players that compete at more things than who can get the most DWIs in a season, and this Blazer team seems as though it has an identity and is possibly only a move or two away from becoming a real title contender (yes, even in this unbelievably stacked Western Conference). That being said, I am very interested to see what the Blazers will do with their draft picks tonight.
Pritchard has already made one move, acquiring the 27th overall pick from New Orleans for a bucket of Paul Allen's cash and a hundred copies of the bug free edition of Windows Vista that "fell of the back of a truck." This is no surprise (I know, nobody believes me when I tell them that things mysteriously fall off of trucks all the time!), as the Blazers have, in recent years, not been afraid to shell out money for additional draft picks.
But what will they do tonight? I've been wondering about this for months now, and it seems that I may not have been too far off in my predictions. Right now, there are some murmurs and rumblings that are barely audible, which may indicate that the Blazers are poised to move the no. 13 pick and a few assets to climb the draft ladder a bit to grab point guard DJ Augustin from the University of Texas. The proposed deal would send Jarrett jack, the 13th pick, and the 33rd pick (that's a second rounder, for those of you that don't know) to New Jersey for the 10th pick and Maurice Ager.
In my humble (yeah right) opinion, this is a great trade for the Blazers for more and better reasons than the simple fact that I totally called this move a long time ago. First and foremost, I believe in Augustin as a player and I am convinced that he would fill a definite need in the Blazers' system. I also like this move (and would applaud perhaps a few more like it) for the salary cap space and flexibility it will create for Portland in a few years. Lastly, this move will help the Blazers take the necessary steps to create space and minutes for their bevy of young, promising talent without requiring major sacrifices or alterations to the team's identity.
Let's get the gushing out of the way and talk for a minute (well, I "talk," you "listen") about Augustin as a player and the ways that he can contribute to the Blazers in the future. Aside from Derrick Rose, DJ Augustin is the best point guard in this draft. Though he is tiny (under 6' and skinny), Augustin is a pure point guard with natural instincts that make him a great playmaker and passer. The young longhorn has drawn comparisons (favorable and not) to Steve Nash because of his high basketball IQ, selfless nature and silky smooth jump shot that already has NBA range. Augustin has also proven himself to be a winner and a clutch performer who is unafraid of the spotlight and taking big shots during games.
Portland desperately needs a dynamic point guard who can initiate the team’s offense, take care of the ball, create shots for others and hit open jumpers on the perimeter. Augustin can and will do all of these things well during his NBA career. He’s a great floor leader who can bring the ball up, and excellent shooter from any range, and he can make his teammates better with his passing and playmaking. A player like Augustin could run the pick & roll, get easy shots for Brandon Roy off of screens, and generally get his teammates the ball in ideal positions to score.
Though Steve Blake fits into this mold well, Augustin has more upside and his game is more versatile than Blake’s, who is primarily a passer and a spot up shooter who lacks (though he is very fundamentally sound) that instinct and ability to raise the level of his teammates’ play.
I mentioned that Augustin has been compared favorably to Steve Nash because of similarities in their respective offensive games, but Augustin has also drawn some unfavorable comparisons to the Canadian playmaker for his lack of size and defensive prowess as well.
At a mere 5’11” and 170 pounds, Augustin will surely struggle with the physical style of play in the NBA from larger point guards (Deron Williams, Baron Davis and Chauncey Billups) and from opposing big men on the interior as well. Additionally, it has been widely reported that Augustin will struggle to defend anyone at the NBA level with his current skill set, and nobody is projecting this kid to develop into a serviceable defender at one of the NBA’s most critical positions anytime soon.
You’re probably itching to ask me (rightfully so), “why would you or the Blazers be so high on a guy who can’t defend when the Celtics just crushed the Lakers in the Finals by relying on suffocating perimeter defense to fuel their team?” My answer is that Portland desperately needs an offensive spark and a consistent perimeter threat to create space for Oden, Aldridge, Outlaw and Roy, so any concerns about Augustin’s defense are simply outweighed by his potential at the other end.
Portland can already defend as a team quite well (a hallmark of Nate McMillan’s coaching style), so they very well may be able to hide some of Augustin’s deficiencies within their team defense. Brandon Roy and Travis Outlaw are both excellent defenders on the perimeter, and the Blazers front line of Aldridge, Oden and the Vanilla Gorilla (that’s Joel Przybilla to you folks) will do an excellent job of protecting the rim and the paint next year.
Get where I’m going yet? With other capable defenders on the floor with him, Augustin a.) won’t be guarding the other team’s best player (probably not even the second best player) and b.) will have capable teammates to help on tough match-ups. With Oden behind him, it won’t matter how often Augustin’s man gets into the lane, as the lane will be clogged by (at least) one of three seven foot tall bodies.
That kind of team oriented help defense is what won the Celtics a title, and with Oden as an anchor, the Blazers will, in time, be capable of having that same defensive identity. Think about it, neither Ray Allen or Paul Pierce are gifted defenders, yet they are both intelligent enough (as is Augustin) to use their teammates to help them play the best defense they possibly can. Opponents still got into the lane against the Celtics this year, but they were constantly met by big bodies and forced into uncomfortable situations. At the very least, I expect Augustin (who is plenty quick, by the way) to be able to learn to play effective team defense and use his natural gifts as a solid base from which he can grow to be a more complete player.
Aside from Augustin’s potential as a player, this proposed deal would start the Blazers moving in a good direction to create space both on the bench and in the salary cap. Though Jarrett Jack (a good, but inconsistent player) makes only a little more than $1,000,000 per year, he (along with Martell Webster, Brandon Roy, Travis Outlaw and LaMarcus Aldridge) will be due for a contract extension shortly, which would tie up the Blazers future cap space. By moving Jack and replacing him with Augustin, the Blazers will free up more cap space that could then be used to bring in a big trade (also utilizing Raef LaFrentz’s expiring deal) or free agent signing in years to come.
Moving Jack would be the first step in the right direction, which could be followed by moving perhaps Outlaw and/or Webster plus a few extras for a big time veteran that would help Portland get over the top and contend for an NBA title. Depending on who is available, the Blazers could get some major help at small forward (Shawn Marion, Andrei Kirilienko, Antawn Jamison, Richard Jefferson or somebody like that) or at the point (Jason Kidd, Baron Davis, Kirk Hinrich). The Blazers could create another package deal on draft night, finalize a trade this summer, or wait until mid season in 2008-09 to see what players are on the market at that point.
Lastly, by trading Jack and possibly one or two other promising young bench players, Portland will have enough minutes to dedicate to players like Sergio Rodriguez and Rudy Fernandez (as well as Augustin) that were previously incredibly hard to come by. I like Jack, Outlaw and Webster a lot (perhaps more than I should), but the team needs the space to test their young assets and some veteran, superstar quality leadership to get them where they want to go.
The bottom line is that there are a lot of options for the Blazers and a lot of different routes to go that all look promising for the future of this team. Horizons look bright no matter what the right move is, the Blazers brass must decide which direction is best. I don’t think that the Blazers will stand their ground at no. 13, but if they do I’d like to see them take a look at Brandon Rush from Kansas. Rush will likely be around and has great skills as a defender and shooter, and his abilities would be a nice fit with Portland’s team.
Ultimately, it’s hard (if not impossible) to accurately gauge where the Blazers will be next year because they have not had any time to play as a unit with Oden, Roy and Aldridge. I can’t be sure exactly how Oden will affect the game, nor can I predict how the team’s needs will shift after he is inserted into the offense.
Based on their play this year, the Blazers need a point guard and Augustin looks like he is the guy for the job. I’ve liked him as a player all year long, and I think that his intangibles as well as his offensive prowess more than make up for his lack of skills on defense. Unless the Blazers can swindle the no. 1 pick away from Chicago (anything is possible, Pritchard got LaMarcus Aldridge for Tyrus Thomas only two years ago!), Augustin is the best and purest point guard that will be available for the Blazers wherever they end up picking tonight.
Keywords: Andrei Kirilienko, Antawn Jamison, Baron Davis, Boston Celtics, Brandon Roy, Brandon Rush, Chauncey Billups, Deron Williams, Derrick Rose, DJ Augustin, Greg Oden, Jarrett Jack, Joel Przybilla, Kevin Pritchard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Martell Webster, Maurice Ager, Nate McMillan, NBA Draft, New Jersey Nets, Paul Pierce, Portland Trail Blazers, Ray Allen, Richard Jefferson, Rudy Fernandez, Sergio Rodriguez, Shawn Marion, Steve Blake, Steve Nash, Travis Outlaw, University of Kansas, University of Texas, Zach Randolph
