Cyclical History and Boxing Tips

Same as it ever was, same as it ever was.  I’m way too burned out on the Celtics/Lakers nostalgia trip to really engage this, but I think that this is worth pointing out (mostly because it’s an opportunity to poke at the national sports media for their laughably predictable analysis and Finals picks).  I just find it somewhat strange that after so many years of going for the same fools gold, the talking heads of the Association can’t figure anything out. 

The standard was set back in the 1960s, when everybody picked Wilt, Jerry West and Elgin Baylor to destroy the creaky, boring Celtics every year in the NBA Finals, continued when Worthy, Magic and Kareem were supposed to blow the doors off of Bird, McHale and Parrish, and has now been appropriately punctuated by the nearly unanimous picks of the Kobe/Gasol Lakers over the Boston Celtics to win the 2008 NBA Finals.  Across three generations, everyone and their mother have picked against the Celtics and chosen the Lakers to steamroll Boston and cruise to a championship, based either on the flashy talent of LA and their dominant players (Wilt, Kobe and Magic), or on the way in which they destroyed the competition in the Western Conference Playoffs, or on the traits that Boston lacks (youth, athleticism, a superstar etc.)

How are the experts doing?  This year they already have egg all over their faces, as Boston is up 2-0 and have looked dominant for the majority of the first two games (games that most experts conservatively estimated that the Lakers would win at least one).  Historically, their track record is even worse.  As it stands, the Lakers are down 8-2 against the Boston Celtics in head to head series wins (ouch!). 

While it’s true that Magic’s Lakers did beat the Celtics twice in 1985 and 1987, they choked hard in 1984 and ducked a major ass-whipping in 1986, so I don’t buy the whole torch-has-been-passed, stats-were-accumulated-in-one-era-of-dominance argument about the NBA’s most historic rivalry.  Furthermore, every series in the 1980s was close and pitted two very even teams against each other, the Celtics could have swept the Lakers or been swept just as easily, so despite the 2-1 Finals edge for the Lakers of the 1980s, I’d have to say that it’s a wash.

Where was I, now?  Right, experts stink at picking series winners, right.  I know, I know, it’s not the most shocking revelation, but it is still worth mentioning just how awful these alleged experts really are.  At the beginning of this year’s Finals, everybody not named Timmy Legs or Simmons the Homer picked LA to win easily, citing the dominance of Kobe Bryant and the superiority of Phil Jackson.  The predictions ranged from Lakers-in-5 to Lakers-in-7, but nearly everybody thought that LA would steal one (or both!) of the first two games in Boston.

Swing and a miss.  Boston not only beat LA twice (running this season’s record against LA to 4-0), but they dominated for the vast majority of both games and played with more aggression, energy and emotion than the Lakers could ever hope to muster.  Despite being “the greatest player on the planet” (did anyone clear that with Duncan or LeBron James), Kobe has had two craptastic games that have involved a lot of long jump shots and contested looks in close.  Sure, he’s scored more than 20 in both games, but he’s killing the Lakers just like old times with his high volume of low percentage shots.  Needless to say, the Lakers are getting spanked, just like old times.

Let’s take a brief walk down memory lane to 1969 to prove my point.  While I wasn’t alive for that Lakers/Celtics series, I’ve been to enough Boston Bar-B-Q’s to know the story well enough to bastardize it here (feel free to chime in, Dad or anyone else who was alive and aware of the Celtics back then).  Here’s the quick and dirty:

The Lakers acquire one Wilton Chamberlain from Philadelphia for Archie Clark, Jerry Chambers and Darryl Imhoff in the NBA’s only mugging to register higher than this year’s blockbuster Pau Gasol for Kwame Brown and Aaron McKie’s reanimated corpse that put the Lakers where they are now.  The Big Dipper was teamed with Jerry West and Elgin Baylor that year, making the Lakers the unanimous favorites to win the NBA title and finally unseat the Celtics from their near decade of dominance.

Meanwhile, the Celtics are old and creaky, suffering injuries and sneaking into the Playoffs at the very bottom of the barrel.  The Celtics and Lakers reach the Finals, and everybody, and I do mean everybody, picks the flashy and talented Lakers over the old, boring Celtics.  Moreover, the media, fans, players (you name it) picked the Lakers to win easily. 

Long story short (watch ESPN Classic for the full story.  What do I look like to you anyways, a goddamned historian???), the series goes to a seventh game in LA and once again, confident that the Lakers would win, various inflammatory statements and publications are made or printed (like say, a program outlining the events of the Lakers’ victory celebration) and then disseminated throughout Southern California (also, unfortunately including the Celtics’ locker room).  The Celtics then come out firing and win an epic battle that ends as the icing on the cake to the Celtics’ dynasty and cements their status forever as greatest team ever assembled.

Now, don’t get me wrong here.  I’m not saying that these Celtics or Lakers stack up against those historic teams, but it is funny how everybody (even me!) can keep getting it wrong in a series that has been so historically lopsided and predictable.  Its fool’s gold, and we all keep falling for it, hook line and sinker. 

It seems strange to think that the Celtics had to prove their legitimacy and force everyone with an opinion and a soapbox to recognize that they belong in the Finals and can beat the Lakers, but that’s where we are and what we’ve come to.  The Celtics have proved a lot of doubters wrong about their toughness, character and abilities as a basketball team, but I think that the true test begins tonight in the Staples Center.  Away from the energy of the home crowd and the kind officiating that always seems to pander to them in the NBA, it will be interesting to see how the Celtics perform against a talented Lakers team that have taken a few serious punches thus far.

Kobe and the Lakers were uncomfortably close to taking the Celtics’ best punch and countering with a huge haymaker in game two, but came up just short when all was said and done.  They weathered the storm, and now I fully expect them to hit back during the games in LA.  It remains to be seen whether they can rebound as well as the Celtics have in this year’s Playoffs (see Eastern Conference Finals/ Game 5 of Cavs v. Celtics circa 2008), but you’ve gotta think that the Lakers will come out swinging tonight.

The Celtics need to do what they have done in the past and be prepared to take a few shots in tonight’s game.  It’s important that they stay balanced and play within their game plan that has been so effective thus far.  If the Celtics know what’s coming, there’s a chance that they can recover and take a dominating lead in this series, but I don’t think that will happen until game four or five.  Pierce, who has been brilliant thus far, will explode in LA (he loves playing in front of his hometown friends and family), so I like Boston’s chances of stealing one of these three road games in Los Angeles.

For right now, they just have to stay balanced and keep their gloves up.  If they weather the storm tonight and see an opportunity to deliver a knockout blow tonight, you can expect Paul Pierce to lead the charge.  If not, they’ll still be on their feet for the next round and still be in control of this series.