Bonus post: NBA Draft Musings

So I realize that I was a bit slow in my posts this past weekend and that I missed a few days, but I just didn't have it in me to do so over the weekend.  Anyhow, I'm feeling more energetic today and I've been trying to come up with a way for my other home team, the Portland Trail Blazers, to improve through some trades and in the draft.  I'm not going totally Simmons here, but I do have some thoughts about a few moves that the Blazers could make to improve themselves at the point and at small forward this summer (I've already written about this some, but now that the draft order is cemented, it's worth revisiting).

The good news for the Blazers is that they are well stocked with young talent and have one of the league's best trading chips (Raef LaFrentz's $12 million expiring contract), however the bad news is that the Blazers need to make roster space for their young players and (as I've said before), I'm not convinced that their young players are really the puzzle pieces necessary for building a championship team.  Another piece of mildly bad news is that the Blazers haven't had the opportunity to play as a unit with Greg Oden, who will be central to the Blazers' game plan for years to come, meaning that they have no way of knowing what their team needs are at this point.

The Blazers have the 13th overall pick in this year's draft and need to address their play either at point guard or on the wing at small forward.  At this point, they're too low on the board to get a player that will really help them in either of those areas, so I'd like to see the Blazers move up a few slots and make a run at drafting DJ Augustin form Texas.  Right now, Chad Ford of ESPN has Augustin going at no. 11 to Indiana, a team that is rebuilding and needs help in the back court.  Augustin's position in the draft will most likely fluctuate between now and then, but I think it's an accurate prediction to have him going somewhere around pick 10-12, given his size, talent and upside. 

If he's still available at pick 13, I'll be shocked, so I think that the Blazers need to trade up a bit (they should be able to do this cheaply) in order to have a shot at Augustin.  The Pacers, who need some help in the front court as well as at the point, might be enticed by a package of Jarrett Jack and the 13th pick for Indiana's 11th pick and maybe a little cash or something else.  I realize that I'm probably not getting the best value for Jack, but the Blazers need to make some roster space and they could definitely stand to give some more minutes to Sergio Rodriguez (Jack is still way too inconsistent and unimpressive to keep at this point, Augustin will be a much better player in the NBA).  Indiana does this deal because they get a tested NBA point guard with some real ability and a good pick with which they can take somebody like Darrell Arthur from Kansas to fulfill their low post scoring needs and develop as a long term replacement for Jermaine O'Neal.

The reason that I like Augustin so much and would give up a fair deal to get him is because he's a pure point guard with a great shooting touch and a true play maker's instinct.  He competed hard in one of the toughest conferences in all of college ball and has shown tremendous ability as a floor leader in big games.  Though he struggled against Derrick Rose and Memphis in the NCAA tournament this year, he did manage to keep his team in the game for quite some time before Memphis pulled away.  In addition to his physical skills and talent, Augustin is a great character/chemistry guy, a trait that the Blazers value greatly over most other characteristics.

Augustin is really one of the only players that I like for the Blazers in this year's draft, though as the day moves closer and closer, I think that we'll all learn a lot more and more options will open up.  Short of taking Augustin, I think the Blazers should draft the best available player and see if they can maybe work out a deal that benefits them either this season or down the road, it's tough to say at this point. 

If Kevin Pritchard wants to go local this year, he could take a stab at Kevin Love, who should still be available when the Blazers pick.  I like Love as a player, and I've heard lately that he's taken some big strides to improve his athleticism and conditioning, which make a player as skilled and fundamentally sound as him seem very enticing.  Unfortunately, the Blazers are doing pretty well in the front court and don't need much help there, so I'd say that the Blazers won't be taking Love in this year's draft.

If the Blazers sit tight on draft day, I'd look for the to make a move over the summer (possibly a sign & trade for a veteran free-agent) or at the trade deadline next season.  Of those two options, I like the latter best for a few reasons.

By waiting until mid-season to potentially make a move for a player, the Blazers will not only likely get a star player at a fire-sale price, they'll also have had half a season to evaluate their team with Greg Oden in the mix and determine what their biggest needs are as a team.  With some real, hard evidence about the team's performance with Oden in the line up, Pritchard and the Blazers should know exactly what they need and who they want to get.  They'll also have the option, if they wait until mid-season, to evaluate whether or not they'll even be contenders in the playoff race, or if they'll be spending another year building towards the future.

Most importantly (it must be, it gets its own paragraph!), however, is the possibility of getting some A-list talent for next to nothing.  I'm not saying for sure that there will be another Pau Gasol level swindling to be had, but when a non-contender is desperate to make a move, their asking price for players with large, multi-year salaries drops significantly.  Whereas it may cost an arm and a leg now for the Blazers to get a top tier talent, next February they may just have to give up Raef LaFrentz's expiring contract and a few minor pieces to get an all star caliber player.  

The down side of playing the waiting game is that there is no guarantee of availability and whomever the Blazers bring in will not have the same amount of time to mesh with the team and learn the Blazers' system.  If Kevin Pritchard and the Blazers are nervous about that, they could try a sign and trade for somebody like Antawn Jamison or maybe even Shawn Marion (prepare to give up a lot!) this coming off-season.  To make anything like that work, the Blazers would likely have to give up quite a lot, and it seems unlikely that they will be willing to pull the trigger on such a costly decision.

If I had it my way, the Blazers would make a push for DJ Augustin in the draft and go after a veteran free agent to help the young Blazers make a playoff push.  I suppose that the last option would be to hold fast for the entire year, evaluate the team and make a push for a huge free agent deal in 2009/2010.  I'm not sure if the Blazers can clear quite enough cap space or provide enough of a market to attract a top level player, but it's always an option.