Cross Your Fingers

Well, I suppose that I am getting what I wanted.  The Cleveland Cavaliers are in Boston for tonight's opening game of the second round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs against the Celtics.  A month or two ago, I boldly stated that I wanted the Celtics to play Cleveland in the second round because they are so inconsistent and flawed (LeBron James aside) and I thought that the Celtics had a good chance of beating them.  Judging by the way LeBron performed against the Wizards and the way the Wizards performed against LeBron, perhaps I should have been pulling for the upset all along (I was, secretly.  Nobody in their right mind really wants to play LeBron James, right Gil?).

Am I a complete donkey for taking that stance (perhaps the same kind of donkey who'd bet Asian Dave on a ridiculous pool shot that was an obvious hustle?), I still don't think so, and for the record, Dave, you got seriously lucky, the check is in the mail.  

Wait, let's get this straight (it sounds absurd even to me!).  You actually still want LeBron against the Celtics?  Yes, rhetorical questioning voice, I do, but with a simple caveat.  I don't want any part of LeBron James himself, he's a dominating force who can will himself and his teammates to a win on any given night.  He scares me, truly.  His combination of skill, athleticism, basketball IQ and sheer freakiness is unparalelled in the Association today and every MJ/Magic comparison is fair in my mind.  The kid is flat out unreal.  

That being said, I want a piece of the rest of the Cavaliers.  What's that you say, there are other Cavaliers not named LeBron James that play professional basketball?  It's true, though you wouldn't be able to tell from looking at a stat sheet or a highlight of any of their games.  Aside from James, the Cavs roster is inconsistent, incomplete, un-athletic and unable to win without King James doing every last thing for them.  They are the reason that the Celtics can and will manhandle the Cavs and win the series.  I hope your reading glasses are on and that you've got nothing better to do for a while (knowing my audience, that last part is a given.  Zing!), because I've got a laundry list of reasons why the Celtics will exploit the other Cavs and win the series and nothing better to do (don't tell the boss, please) than to write them all down.  Again, I've covered a lot of this already, but I know that nobody will actually dig through my blog archive and read the old posts (besides, nobody read them the first time anyway, am I right?), so here we go.

First off, the Cavs are not nearly as young or athletic as the Atlanta Hawks were, which should make things easier on the Celtics on both ends of the floor.  Aside from James, the Cavs don't have another explosive athlete or a player who is capable of exploiting the Celtics with athletic prowess.  The Hawks had nothing but a roster of young, athletic studs who were dedicated to pushing the tempo and exploiting their only advantage over the Celtics at every opportunity.  The Hawks were able to use their superior athleticism to compensate for inferior execution and game planning to keep the series as close as it was.  The Cavs aren't as athletic as Atlanta (aside from James), and they still don't execute as well as the Celtics do, which puts them at a disadvantage without an effective countermeasure (aside from James, broken record much?).

Because the Cavs are less athletic than the Hawks (and the Celtics, too), they will be easier to guard at the other end of the floor and won't present the same kind of match up problems that Atlanta did.  Additionally, a ton of pressure will be taken off of Ray Allen on defense, who won't see much, if any, time guarding LeBron, whereas he had to guard Joe Johnson in the first round.  This should benefit Allen, and the Celtics as a whole, tremendously.  Against a team that isn't stronger, faster or better conditioned than the Celtics themselves, the Cavs will have to beat Boston in areas where the Celtics excel or are outright dominant.  

Speaking of defending Cleveland, the Celtics are well equipped to do so, and several of Cleveland's flaws may prove to be their downfall against the air tight defense of the Boston Celtics.  Starting in the middle, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, though large and adept at scoring in several different ways, is incredibly slow (not physical at all given his size and imposing frame) and hasn't played well at all in Boston this season.  Kendrick Perkins, PJ Brown and perhaps Glenn Davis will all take a turn on BIg Z, and match up well against his size and his game.  Additionally, there will be some help on the interior because of the collective black hole that Cleveland has at power forward since they traded Drew Gooden away at midseason.  At best, the Cavs have Joe Smith at the 4, and at worst it's Ben "Anemic on Offense" Wallace, with Floppy McFlopperson (excuse me, Anderson Varejao) falling somewhere in the middle in a realm I like to call obnoxious game and hair land.  Since none of Cleveland's power forward's can score consistently, there will be plenty of help defense on Ilgauskas and anyone else who sets foot in the paint in Boston tonight.  

Having covered the front court, let's move on to the wings and the perimeter, where the Celtics have been excellent all year long.  I am again going to disregard LeBron for the time being for reasons that I've already made obvious.  Rajon Rondo should have no problem locking down Delonte West and Daniel Gibson, neither of whom are consistent threats to do anything but spot up from behind the three-point arc and let it fly.  They are dangerous from out there, however the Celtics have defended the three-point line better than anyone all year, and Rondo's length should make things more difficult for the Cavalier's point guards.  

Similarly, Wally Szczerbiak is a one dimensional and inconsistent scoring threat who hurts the Cavs with his shooting almost as much as he helps them.  ray Allen/Paul Pierce should be able to lock Wally World down with ease and without expending too much effort, leaving them fresh for the offensive end of the floor.  Devin Brown and Sasha Pavlovic should be easy covers as well, as they are both extremely flawed and incomplete basketball players.

As for LeBron, I'm not sure that it's possible to cover him effectively.  The Celtics will certainly try, however it's a tall order that nobody has been able to fill all season long.  James Posey will definitely see a lot of time guarding LeBron, and hopefully he can use his skills and talents to at least take James out of his rhythm a little bit.  We could also see Garnett on james a bit, though I doubt if KG will really be asked to pick LeBron up at the three-point line and guard him all the way to the basket.  Still, I imagine that Garnett will play a crucial role in defending and containing LeBron James on the basketball court.  Although LeBron has continually beat opposing doubleteams because of his height and tremendous court vision, I think that the Celtics could use the double team situationally to derail Cleveland's vaunted offensive game plan of "give the ball to LeBron and watch him score."

Because the Celtics play such great team defense, they have shown the skills and ability necessary to recover after a double team and still force their opponents into low percentage shots.  Additionally, throwing Pierce and Garnett or Posey and Garnett at LeBron could make life more difficult than normal for King James.  The length and physicality of Posey and Garnett could hinder LeBron's ability to pass effectively out of the double team and disrupt his rhythm during the course of the game.  Not only would the ball be out of LeBron's hands, but it will hopefully be coming away from him without the usual touch that James uses to set up his teammates so well.

One last thing about defending LeBron that could work in the Celtics favor (take with a grain of salt) is Posey's ability to draw charges in the lane and deny penetration through his footwork.  Defending the elites of the NBA is one thing, however defending LeBron James is a whole different animal, which I haven't seen done effectively this year.  You can deny him the ball and make him pass, however he's expanded his game and his presence to the point where he can truly energize his teammates and raise their abilities to make big shots.  To put it mildly, he's a tough cover.

Defensively, the Cavs put the vice grips on a talented and potent offensive team in the Washington Wizards.  Cleveland's defense has always been solid, however they don't match up especially well with the Celtics and could suffer as a result.  Mirroring some of their offensive inconsistencies, the Cavs have personnel problems defensively since their mid season trade.  The Cavs have one problem in particular, and that is that wally Szczerbiak has to guard somebody when he's on the floor.  Wally World has never been fleet of foot or exceptionally committed to the defensive end, and it's very hard to imagine him chasing Ray Allen around the court or taking the physical punishment of having to guard Pierce.

On the interior, Cleveland lacks a quick big man capable of guarding Kevin Garnett.  you might think that Ben Wallae is such a player, however i can tell you that he has deteriorated to a shell of his former self (I should know, I loved to watch Big Ben play defense on those great Piston teams of 2003-2005) and is incapable of sticking with KG.  Cleveland certainly does not have anyone close to Josh Smith, who has the rare combination (that KG also possesses) of quickness, intensity, length, strength and physicality necessary to contain Garnett.  The Big Ticket should find himself with enough space to execute his game and be successful.

One area that the Celtics need to improve upon to really have an edge on Cleveland is on the boards.  Cleveland rebounds the ball very well (partially because they miss so many shots, but also because they have great rebounders like LeBron James!)  Boston got killed on the road because they let the Hawks grab lots of offensive rebounds, and that part of the game is absolutely key to Cleveland's success on the interior.  All of their big men thrive on the offensive glass, relying on tip ins or second effort buckets to fuel their play.  If the Celtics can limit the Cavs on the glass, they'll have a huge edge in the series.

Overall, I expect this series to be very hard fought and close, and I expect that we'll see six or seven games before everything is done.  Though the Cavs and Celtics split their season series 2-2, all of those meetings happened before the Cavs mid season roster shake up.  Although the Cavaliers have improved their perimeter shooting with the trade, i think that they're significantly weaker in several key area that the Celtics can exploit to gain a major edge in the series against the Eastern Conference's most feared team.  Tip off is just under three hours away, I can't wait to see how it plays out!