Yesterday, I wrote about the Celtics easy schedule heading into their likely first round match up with the Atlanta Hawks. Today, after watching Cleveland lose to Larry Hughes and Ben Gordon and the Chicago Bulls (the only reason they even get a nod is because of Noah's last second defense on King James, otherwise I'd feel fine about disavowing their existence), I'm just itching to unnecessarily criticize the Cavs and explain to my massive audience (there's at least four of you by now, right?) why I'm salivating at the mere thought of a second round playoff match-up with Cleveland.
Though almost every sportswriter has written at least one column about how nobody in their right mind wants to play LeBron James in the Eastern Conference Playoffs this year, I say bring 'em on! You may think that I'm drinking some funny Kool-Aid here, or that I'm writing this in a closed room with an open bottle of toxic glue or something, but trust me, I'm just a little ragged from our wonderful adventure to Union Jack's last night (thanks to Linds, Raymond and Wizard Whitebread for providing the inspiration, motivation, and all thos e singles, by the way). I digress, but there's plenty of good reasons why the Celtics want to see Cleveland coming to Boston in the second round this year.
First and foremost, I'd rather see the Boston Celtics match up against Cleveland than the other likely alternative, the Orlando Magic. Orlando has already beaten the Celtics twice this season (by a combined 5 points), whereas the Celtics split their season series with Cleveland, 2-2. Orlando also presents some tough match-ups for the Celtics, with Dwight Howard in the middle and Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu on the perimeter. While none of the Orlando players present as difficult a cover as LeBron James (Howard is close, but his game is not as diverse as LeBron's, nor does he have the same combination of speed and strength that makes James almost impossible to contain), the Magic have three legitimate scoring options that are capable of sinking any opponent on any night.
With Cleveland, however, you know who's going to sink you. And, as the Spurs showed last year in the Finals, you can take LeBron away and dare the other Cleveland players beat you (they won't). For that reason alone, I'd rather see the Celtics play Cleveland this postseason. LeBron is perhaps the most dominant player in the league, however beyond him, the Cavaliers have nobody else who can create their own shot (or a shot for their teammates), let alone carry their team to victory.
The way the Cavaliers are built right now, their only viable strategy to win a basketball game is to play enough defense to keep the game close, and then close their eyes and hope that LeBron scores enough in crunch time to win. While this strategy has been fairly successful throughout the regular season, against an elite opponent in a seven game series, the Cavs will need to find another way to win. They simply can't rely on LeBron to do absolutely everything on every night and carry them to victory, particularly against an elite opponent. It just isn't that reliable.
One of the biggest problems is that the Cavs aren't actually that good defensively with the current pieces they have on their roster. Don't believe me? Check the box score from last night. Chicago (30-45) shot 53.5% from the field (the Bulls are last in the NBA on the season, shooting just 43% from the field), and the Bulls allowed Larry Hughes to put up a LeBron like 25-8-9 on 11-17 from the field. This is, in case you were wondering, the same Larry Hughes who is shooting 38% on the season and averaging only 3.5 rebounds and 2.8 assists per game. Alarm bells are ringing.
But that was just one game, right? Not exactly. As of right now, the Cavs are a middle-of-the-pack defensive team, currently sitting ninth in the NBA in points allowed (97.3 per game) and 13th in opponents' field goal percent (45.76%). While they could be doing a lot worse, their defense isn't good enough to consistently lock down good teams or to reliably keep them in every close game. Additionally, since the 11 player trade in mid February, the Cavs have been coughing up more points than ever and dropping some games to bad teams that should have been gimmies (2 losses to the Bucks, 2 losses to the Bulls). What's worse, the Cavs haven't exactly been shining against good teams since the big trade, losing to Orlando, Boston, Detroit and New Orleans, as well as dropping one to the Wizards. While the Cavs have won some games, you have to remember that LeBron was playing out of his mind for the first half of March, averaging 38 points per game through the first half of the month.
Want more evidence that supports my daring conclusion that relying solely on LeBron James is risky against good teams? Again, look no further than last night's game against Chicago. The Cavs hung around for the whole game, and in the closing seconds, they were right where they wanted to be, down by one with the ball in LeBron's hands. Only the problem was that the Bulls swarmed LeBron, knowing that he was going to be taking the last shot. The result was a block by Noah and two free throws made by Ben Gordon to put the Bulls up 3 with only seconds left. The Cavs still had another opportunity to tie the game and send it to overtime, and one more chance to put the ball in LeBron's hands and hope for another one of his miracle finishes.
The Bulls had other plans, and had two defenders all over James before he could come down with the inbound pass. James was forced to give the ball up (the right decision) and made a nifty touch pass that was right on the money to Daniel Gibson, who was standing all alone at the three-point line (the pass was incredible, demonstrating LeBron's athleticism, court vision, and soft touch). Gibson bricked the shot and the Cavs lost 101-98. The moral of the story? get the ball out of LeBron's hands and you have a great chance of winning.
Not to be too redundant, but this is exactly what the Spurs did in the Finals last year, and it worked! The Spurs dared Sasha Pavlovic, Drew Gooden and Daniel Gibson to beat them and focused all of their attention on LeBron, knocking him out of rhythm and incessantly harassing him at every opportunity. Even LeBron James isn't dominant enough to go 1 on 5 against the league's best defense, and although James has been playing better this year than last (incredible, no?), I still don't think he's capable of beating the Boston Celtics in a seven game series by himself.
Because the Cavaliers are a very incomplete team on both ends of the floor, the Celtics should be able to exploit the Cavs weaknesses on both ends of the floor. Offensively, Ben Wallace and Anderson Varejao are black holes in the middle of the floor, living only off of the offensive glass and lacking anything even remotely close to touch on their jump shots or around the rim. Their other front court options, Joe Smith (consistently mediocre) and Big Z (as far as I can tell, a statue) are not without their glaring flaws and can disappear as easily as they can impact the game.
On the perimeter, "Boobie" Gibson and Delonte West are still inconsistent and incomplete offensively, and the tandem of Wally Szczerbiak and Sasha Pavlovic provide streaky (usually cold) three-point shooting and not much else. I'm not even sure what to write about Devin Brown, suffice it to say that he's never really made an impression on me or shown any ability to actually impact the game in any significant manner.
On the other side of the ball (that's defense, got it?), the Cavs have just as many glaring problems as they do on the offensive end. The most glaring of these problems is the defense of Wally Szczerbiak. The bottom line is that Wally World has to guard somebody, and no matter who it is, it will be a mismatch that the Celtics can and will exploit. If Sasha Pavlovic is on the floor instead of Szczerbiak, you can expect the same results (a turn-style on defense and many bricked corner three's on offense).
On the inside, the Cavs are relying on the diminished Ben Wallace to anchor their defense, which thus far has been a mistake and hasn't produced the kind of success the Cavs would like to see. Though he still has flashes of his old self (3 blocks last night), his rebounding is way down and it has become obvious that Wallace's defense at this point isn't worth the offensive penalty the Cavs pay for having him out there. Joe Smith is nothing special, Big Z is so slow that he couldn't guard me, and Anderson Varejao won't be able to flop when KG is using his dream shake move to create space for his fade away jumpers.
Although LeBron James is perhaps the game's most dominant player and showed the world that he can take over the game for long stretches against tough opponents (ask the Detroit Pistons how it feels), he'll be facing a completely unprecedented challenge in the 2007-08 Boston Celtics. The Celtics have the talent, the coaching, the focus and the intensity to win a championship, much like the Spurs of last year. Boston is diverse on offense, tenacious on defense, and can already smell a title that's looming just over the horizon.
There is little to no chance of seeing a repeat of last year's Eastern Conference Finals, where the Pistons allowed LeBron to run them over and dominate the final games of that series. The Celtics want it too bad, they are too focused and too talented to submit to that kind of embarrassment. The strategy to beat Cleveland is well known and is surprisingly effective, and I don't think that there is any way that Cleveland can adapt in time to avoid defeat in the playoffs this year.
If and when the Cavs lose, it won't be LeBron's fault. I fully expect him to play some of the best basketball of his short and already prolific career, however if the Celtics have their way, the ball won't be in LeBron's hands during the deciding moments of their second-round series.
