It's been reported that Paul Pierce has been icing his knees lately and wouldn't mind a rest. While this may seem troubling to Celtics fans, it's actually just a nice means for me to explain for the 365,872 time why it is soooooo nice to play in the Eastern Conference of the NBA.
While nine superb basketball teams are sweating out the last two weeks of the season in the tightest playoff race we've ever seen in the NBA, the Boston Celtics will be resting and tuning up for the playoffs. While I'll admit that there's nothing like playing two weeks of playoff basketball just to get into the playoffs to tune your squad up and focus them mentally, I still think that the Celtics have a huge advantage and will be the most prepared to make a championship run come playoff time.
There are two weeks left in the regular season, and the Boston Celtics have seven games left to play. Of those seven games, only the Wednesday night game on April 9 will feature an opponent (the Washington Wizards) with a winning record (oh by the way, the Wiz are only 38-37 thus far, barely above .500). The other opponents that the Celtics will face (Bobcats, Bucks x2, Atlanta, the Knicks, and New Jersey) have a combined record of 140-234 (and they say history majors can't add!).
At this point, the Celtics have to do little more than not lose to capture the Eastern Conference title, and it seems as though Rivers could rest some of the starters during the next few games, and then bring them all back for the last two or so before the postseason starts. This way, you could rest Ray Allen, Paul Pierce and maybe Kevin Garnett (though I sincerely doubt he wants to) for a few games and let the Celtics bench handle the business and establish a better rhythm. I think it would be great for somebody like Sam Cassell to get a lot of minutes in the coming week so that he can continue to adapt to the Celtics system and hopefully get comfortable with his teammates.
"But wait," you're probably saying to yourself, "don't you want momentum going into the playoffs like Golden State had going in last year against Dallas?" My answer is yes, for some teams, particularly those playing in the West where every team from 1 through 8 is a legitimate playoff team. The Golden State upset last year was truly special, and that Warriors team peaked at exactly the right time and rode the enthusiasm of their fans to an epic upset over the NBA's best team. That series was special, and I doubt anything like it will happen again this year. That Golden State team from last year was (and still is) an incredibly talented team with an excellent coach who schemed the perfect game plan to beat the Mavs, which is often lost in the hype of the cinderella story and the electric atmosphere the Warriors created at home.
In the East, however, the Celtics first round match up this season will most likely be the Atlanta Hawks (who at 35-40 own a four game advantage on the Nets and Pacers, who have identical records of 31-44). Instead of fighting tooth and nail for the last playoff spot in the Eastern Conference, the battle for the eighth seed in the East is a battle to see who can back their way in by being marginally less bad than their competition.
Although the Hawks would be ending a long playoff drought were they to clinch the eighth seed this year, the Hawks are not as talented, nor are they coached as well as the 2007 Warriors were. Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby are nice veterans with some playoff experience and success under their belts (though no titles), and Josh Smith is a tantalizing young talent with limitless potential and a freaky body, but they aren't exactly the same as Baron Davis, Stephen Jackson, Jason Richardson and Monta Ellis (Joe Johnson is best player in that group not named Baron Davis, but I really like Ellis and Jackson's experience, winner's mentality, craziness etc.).
Furthermore, the Celtics haven't lost the Hawks this year, winning both of their previous meetings by double digits (23 and 10). By contrast, the 2007 Warriors owned Dallas last year in the regular season, an indicator that they definitely had the Mavs number and were talented enough to consistently beat them. The simple truth is that the Hawks are not very good and the Celtics can (and will) beat them even if they aren't carrying a lot of momentum into the playoffs from the final weeks of the season.
Lastly, while playing your hearts out and carrying a lot of momentum into the playoffs can help, it can also cause teams to peak too early, get tired and fold in a later round. After beating the Mavs last year, the Warriors gave the Jazz a run for their money, but ultimately the Jazz prevailed and won the honor of being the roadkill for the unstoppable juggernaut that was the 2007 Spurs. Golden State expended everything they had in beating the Mavs, and they didn't have enough left in the tank to pull the same feat off twice against Utah.
You might ask, "but if the Celtics coast into the Playoffs, don't they run the risk of being knocked off before they can hit their stride?" I'd say there is a risk, but it is negligible (I'd like to say no way, but after the goddamned Patriots fiasco I've been humbled into believing that nothing is absolutely certain). As I said, the Hawks just aren't as talented as the Celtics are, nor do they pose no real match up problems for the Celtics (though it will be fun to watch Josh Smith have to likely defend KG and Paul Pierce at times). Additionally, the Celtics are a team that brings intensity and focus to the court every single night, so I can't see them having a mental lapse against the Hawks or doing anything else except handle them like they've handled everyone else this year.
Finally, while momentum is so important to win championships in other sports, it's incredibly hard to ride that kind of wave of momentum throughout the gruelingly long (is it June yet?) NBA postseason. With a grand total of four seven game series to win that stretches over a month and a half, it will be the team that is the most focused and in tune that will win, not the team that is the hottest.
While having momentum can help teams focus and gel as a group, having to play so hard just for the opportunity to advance into the postseason will wear the West out well before the Finals. Nobody in the West can hold anything back for a later round, otherwise they run an incredible risk of being bounced out before they know what's hit them. The Celtics, on the other hand, will be rested and won't face a real challenge until the second round of the Playoffs, where they could potentially meet (gulp!) LeBron James (I'd say "and the Cleveland Cavaliers," but they don't really deserve much mention or credit).
The Celtics are a focused, talented and extremely cohesive unit who have been playing like they're on a divine mission all season long. The intensity and sense of urgency has been present throughout the Celtics season, and there's no reason to expect that they'd lose focus after a short break or two. Although they don't have any more measuring stick games left against good opponents, they'll be prepared, fresh, and mentally focused come round one of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. While the team mantra has been one day at a time, I still think that they can handle their business and game plan a little bit for the future at the same time.
