It's only been two days of blogging here at Boston Celtics News, but already I'm going to stray away from the Celtics in order to address a pressing question about my other hometown team, the Portland Trail Blazers. The question, posed to me last night at the bar by none other than Wizard Whitebread, was "what do you think the Blazers should draft this year?" It's something that I've been thinking about for a while now, but I haven't really been able to come up with an answer that completely satisfies me.
The answer to the Wizard's question isn't as simple as most "draft needs" questions are because the Blazers have been playing all season without one of the two central players on their roster, center and 2007 number one overall pick, Greg Oden. Because they're playing as an incomplete unit without a player who is going to greatly impact the game on both ends of the floor, it's all but impossible to accurately evaluate the team's needs. Who knows how the Blazers will play individually and as a team with Oden on the floor? It's not that everything we see the Blazers do this year is useless as a measuring stick more the future, but evaluations of the performance of the team and individual players this season must be taken with a grain of salt.
Although Oden is still somewhat raw on offense, just the impact of his physical presence on the floor will change the way opponents defend the Blazers next year. It's very likely that Oden will see his fair share of double teams down low, which should free up the other Blazers and create easier shots on the offensive end. With more attention being paid to Oden down low, LaMarcus Aldridge should have a lot more freedom to post up, slide out and otherwise find himself with more room to operate and score while the Blazers are on offense. Additionally, with more attention being paid to Oden and Aldridge on the interior, the Blazers perimeter players should find themselves with more open looks at the basket from 20 feet out to the three-point arc. This should help players like Steve Blake and Martell Webster, who are reliable perimeter shooters that are somewhat incapable of creating their own shots. Lastly, Brandon Roy should benefit on offense as opposing defenses will be prevented from helping on his slashing drives. If defending big men commit to stopping Roy, Oden will be open underneath for many easy dunks, however if the big men stay home, Roy has proven that he can score on just about anyone in a one-on-one situation.
This is all highly theoretical, and there are some areas that I feel the Blazers will still need to improve upon in order to be considered legitimate contenders in the near future. The two biggest areas where I can see room for improvement are at small forward on the wing, or at point guard. The Blazers have a lot of young, talented players at both of these positions, however all of them are incomplete players in some way, and none of them appear to be ready to make the necessary contributions for a playoff or title contending team.
On the wing, the Blazers have been using a combination of Travis Outlaw, Martell Webster and James Jones to fill the minutes at small forward in the Blazers rotation. Of all three, Travis Outlaw is probably the best player who has the most potential to raise his game in the near future.
Outlaw has developed a solid mid range game this year, and has been expanding the range on his jumpshot that has the potential to become almost indefensable given his length and leaping ability. Unfortunately, Outlaw is still inconsistent and largely one dimensional on offense. He doesn't have enough range or confidence to shoot three-pointers, and despite his ability to create space off the dribble for his mid-range jumper, Outlaw seems to be unable to get to the rim and finish like you would expect a strong, lanky 6'9" small forward should. As a result of his inability to get inside, Outlaw doesn't get to the line very often (only 3.6 times per game) and doesn't have another way to score if his shots aren't falling on a given night.
The Blazers other main option at small forward is Martell Webster, who posesses many of the skills and abilities I'd like to see in Outlaw, but lacks many of the good qualities that Outlaw embodies. Webster has a sweet stroke and has a scorer's mentality, but he lacks consistency and, as a result, confidence on the floor. I believe that the coaches are to blame for part of this lack of confidence, as they have been incredibly inconsistent with Webster's minutes, both preventing him from establishing a rhythm or routine and showing him that they do not trust him on the floor. Webster's weakest point is his defense and his effort on the floor, though he has shown some signs of improvement in both of those areas. Webster is still very young and developing slowly (this season has been his best and he's progressed in almost every statistical category), and while he may actually develop into a very nice player in years to come, I feel like he's better suited to be a bench player than a starter on a playoff team.
At point guard, the Blazers are in a similar situation to their small forward dilemma. They have a lot of nice, young players, but nobody who is clearly the man or a complete player capable of carrying the Blazers to title contention in the near future. Of the point guards on the roster, Steve Blake is the best of the bunch at the moment, and he has played well this year and has improved his outside game quite a bit. Blake is a smart player who limits his mistakes (only 1.3 turnovers per game), plays solid defense with effort, and is a good decision maker. Unfortunately, Blake is a game manager, not a play maker. Though he doesn't hurt the team with costly mistakes, he doesn't make his teammates better either. In order for the Blazers to really contend, they need a player to create easy scoring opportunities for others. A healthy Brandon Roy can do this fairly effectively, but it would greatly help the Blazers if they had somebody else to help shoulder that burden.
As for Jarrett Jack and Sergio Rodriguez, they are both tantalizing talents with great potential, however neither has demonstrated the ability to consistently impact the game and help the Blazers win. Jarrett Jack is athletic and has shown the ability to get to the rim and finish in traffic. He can score, and he can pass a little, and he's not terrible on defense either, however Jack has been particularly inconsistent with his shooting, and he has often demonstrated poor decision making while on the floor.
Lastly, the Blazers have Sergio Rodriguez sitting somewhere near the end of the bench. Rodriguez is a flashy passer and has a rare play-makers mentality, but he lacks a jumpshot, an NBA body, good decision making skills and the ability to defend anyone. He's still raw and could develop into a good player, but he seems too soft and inconsistent to really make an effective contribution.
Right now, the Blazers have three point guards that do three different things, but none of them are complete enough to do it all. If only Nate McMillan and Kevin Pritchard could somehow fuse Rodriguez, Jarrett Jack and Steve Blake together, they'd have an elite point guard who could shoot, slash, make plays, finish at the rim, and get to the line. I like the name Franken-point for this unholy hybrid, you could also just call it Chris Paul II.
Unfortunately, I think we're still a few years away from Franken-point, so as it stands, the Blazers need to upgrade at the point more than anywhere else. The Blazers will be in the lottery this year, but they'll probably be picking somewhere in the early teens, which puts some of the elite players in this year's draft out of reach. The Blazers could possibly try to trade into the top ten, which may give them a shot at somebody like DJ Augustin from Texas, or Russell Westbrook from UCLA.
I like Augustin the best, he's got range on his shot and has shown the ability to make plays for his teammates. Other than Derrick Rose, I think Augustin is the best point guard in this year's draft, and should be a top ten pick. If the Blazers were willing to package Sergio Rodriguez, a pick, and possibly another player, they could possibly get their hands on Augustin. Lastly, Augustin is a Longhorn, which I'm sure is something LaMarcus Aldridge would appreciate.
Whatever the move is on draft day, I have confidence in Kevin Pritchard to make the right move. Pritchard has a proven track record on draft day, perhaps earning him the title of "anti-Isiah Thomas." Knowing that they haven't been able to evaluate their team properly with Greg Oden on the floor, Pritchard may very well sit tight on draft day and try and fill some minor gaps in the roster. That hasn't been his reputation, and it seems that the Blazers are flush with young talent that they could turn into a premium player, either throught the draft or trades. I trust Pritchard completely, but If I were in control, I'd take a long, hard look at Augustin in the work outs and see if I couldn't find some way to get him into red and black next year.
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